OBAMA'S NEW AF-PAK STRATEGY: WHAT IT MEANS FOR PAKHTUNS

Mr Obama today unveiled broad contours of the long awaited new Afghan-pakistan Policy, which his administration would pursue in the next few years in our region. This policy has been evolved after carrying out a detailed reveiw of the situation on ground and on the surface seems to be a much more robust approach to handling the problem of extremism and terrorism eminating from this region. However, if you ask me frankly, I didnot find anything encouraging in the policy speech for the Pakhtun nation - the people most affected, except for his refernce that Pakistan will not be given a blank checque. This was heartening, because as I understand, the US will now closely monitor and get involved in the actual spending of the development funds that he promised to Pakistan, unlike the billions of dollars given and siphoned off by the Pakistani state over the last 8 years instead of spending it to change the ground situation. There is thus a hope that some of these funds will actually find their way to the Tribal areas and Pakhtun regions as the US President clearly emphasised the need for a positive change in the lives of people of this region to steer them away from extremism. The need now is to raise Pakhtun voices from different forums to ensure that this need is highlighted and necessary mechanisms integrated in the follow up methodologies for how these funds are to be utilised. As you have highlighted earlier, institution building, education, infrastructure, health and capacity building for sustained development in these areas should be the focus.
The second aspect that was encouraging was the mention of engagement of the Afghan people in areas other than military and deployment of a large civilian infrastructure to pursue this objective. I believe , by implication there will also be a focus on doing the same east of the Durand Line. Again here the obvious need for Pakhtun forums to emerge as reliable and credible stakeholders for the US to engage. Important is that we must bring the point home to the West , that the Pakistani state and its institutions cannot be relied to pursue the strategies and policies envisioned by the US President in the absence of active and credible oversight by the international organisations, the primary stakeholders-the Pakhtun people and active involvement of the local civil society. Thirdly , the US and West has to be made understood that rise of extremism in Pukhtunkhwa is also a direct result of the complete disenfrenchisement of the Pakhtuns, their absence from the power corridors and their continued exploitation by the state and its intelligence agencies as well as state sponsored proxy groups. And that the nurseries of extremism go deep in the south across Indus into the heartland of Pakistan like southern Punjab where huge terrorist training infrastructure exists in places like Bahawalpur, Muredke, Jhang and Multan
Another positive aspect which was a signal for change was the mention by Obama that stability in Afghanistan can not be brought without frontally tackling the extremist threat ( AlQaeeda, Taliban and Company) in Pakistan. To me this signals a greater involvement by the Americans and its allies on the Pakistani side. What kind of shape that takes is yet to be seen but certainly it will see more involvement and oversight by the US and NATO as well as regional countries of what the Pakistani state does this side of Durand Line, thus making it difficult for them to continue sponsoring their proxies and continue playing a double game as in the past. However this can be a double edged strategy which can also result in increased violence and radicalisation if not managed properly. The hue and cry raised by the likes of Hamid Gul, Imran and Shireen Mazari etc on the drone attacks is a clear example. They conveniently use these drone attacks to further confuse the issues and draw the general maases further towards radicalisation and anti-americanism for obvious reasons. The US must be told that this policy has to be more broad based and it may also be appropriate that NATO and particularly the regional countries like India, Russia and China are brought on board to make it more legitimate.Surely that must already be on their minds and will probably crystalize after the Hague meeting as alluded to by Mr Obama.
The Pakistani Foreign Minister was quick to welcome the policy speech but that was probably a first reaction without absorbibg the medium and long term implications. There is likely to be stiff opposition and criticism of more US involvement in Pakistan as envisaged by the new Policy from the right wing and establishment. This was clearly manifested by the initial analysis of some commentators like Tallat Masoud, Shireen Mazari and some others representing the establishment, who have always demanded to delink Pakistan's efforts at handling extremism from the US. This approach runs contrary to the enhanced emphasis placed by the new policy on tackling the issues simultaneously on both sides of the Durand Line head on. The religious lobby and the rightis parties like JI, JUI, PTI and even PML(N) are going to exert extra pressure on the Pakistani government for accepting more intrusive US involvement and resultantly the political unstability may further increase despite the relative calm since restoration of the Chief Justice.
In nutshell, there is some hope for the Pakhtun people in Obama's new AF-PAK policy on both sides of Durand Line. The determination exhibited by Obama in his speech if translated into workable strategies may be a ray of hope for the bleeding Pakhtun nation. There is however a need to emphasize on the US and its partner Western countries interested in resolving the crisis in afghanistan and eliminating the sources of global terrorism that they have to make the hard choice of attempting to adress the real root causes of the problem; which lie in the power corridors of Islamabad, rawalpindi and Lahore and not the hamlets and villages of Pakhtunkhwa which are being decimated by relentless bombing by the US,NATO and Pakistani forces alike as well as by the savagery of the Taliban